Bloody shovel

Don't call it a spade

Gender inequality in fertility

I’ve noticed people don’t wanna hear this, but I still gotta say it.

I was doing some light research to follow up on my last post. Stumbled upon this:

JANUARY 2014

The writing is incredibly bad. Purposefully obfuscating. But the figures are very illuminating. Take a look at this one:
Screenshot 2017-05-31 18.04.48
TFR of German men: 1.27. That’s low.
TFR of German women: 1.67. Huh? German women are having 30% more children than German men. With whom?
With someone besides German men, of course. That’s how it works.
So now you know why:
girls-standing-with-sign-welcoming-migrants-70132
Can’t fight Darwin.
Advertisements

46 responses to “Gender inequality in fertility

  1. Pingback: Gender inequality in fertility | @the_arv

  2. Rob Horner June 1, 2017 at 15:40

    Honor killings exist in most cultures for this reason.

      • Rod Horner June 1, 2017 at 18:23

        Prior to the liberalization process, I would guess they were relatively universal. They’re certainly still ubiquitous in Africa, the Near East, and Southern/Central Asia where liberalism has yet to make serious in-roads or was beaten back by a reactionary revival of sorts. The Americas are perhaps the one place I’m not familiar with in this respect but from what I understand of pre-Colonial Amerindian tribes, it would shock me to find out that most of them were not scalping the women who consorted with the Europeans.

        • spandrell June 1, 2017 at 18:43

          Yes, but to the point of their own family killing them? That sounds like a particular Muslim (and Indian) thing. Never heard of that in Europe or Asia.

          Young women are so intrinsically valuable that it’s kinda hard to find any place where they get really punished.

          • Rod Horner June 1, 2017 at 20:07

            Myanmar/Burma is undergoing such a purge at the moment. As I understand it, apostates from Buddhism to Islam, even women, are fair game. There were also some rather extreme consequences for Vietnamese and Korean gals who didn’t go home with their GI after their respective wars. Homogeneous societies don’t stay that way by letting half their population slide during a demographic invasion.

          • Rod Horner June 1, 2017 at 20:24

            I think it would be fair to say that strategy is only available to higher birth-rate groups. As you suggest, the most fecund peoples on earth (Indians, Africans, Semites, etc.) are the most well known for their strict, even fatal, disciplining of female defection. I would also agree with what I presume to be your point: that Europeans are in no position (even setting their own morality and culture aside) to practice anything similar. It would likely destroy their ability to rebound more than it hampered defection given the low rate of reproduction across the board.

            That being said, I gather from what’s transpired historically that the value of defectors and semi-defectors is going to plummet in the near future. Whether it can go negative largely depends on how much pressure is on the Europeans. If there is a reasonable expectation that mixed children will absolutely identify as the other and will take up arms against the natives, it should go without saying that the women who bear them will be considered enemy combatants, even if they are not themselves consciously hostile.

  3. quaslacrimas June 1, 2017 at 17:44

    The study was done on West German men and women between the ages of 36-55, with the average male respondent being somewhat younger than the average female respondent; and they are slightly ambiguous about how TFR was calculated, saying at one point that they used birth certificates and at another that they used children resident in the household.

    Whether they used birth certificates or residential data, there is a little problem; a newborn’s mother is always known and usually raises him, whereas the father not so much. In either kind of calculation, the “fertility” of women will always be higher than the “fertility” of men, simply because some children are born fatherless or raised by single mothers. But I don’t think that is even necessarily the problem; because German men are three years older than German women at the birth of their first child (and presumably, on average, at the births of higher-order children as well), some of the older women in the sample have husbands who were too old to be included in the sample, while some of the younger men in the same have wives who were too young to be included (or haven’t settled down yet in the first place).

    It’s also possible that some of the fathers were *East* rather than West German, due to internal mobility, but I suspect the age effects explain most of the effect.

    • spandrell June 1, 2017 at 18:26

      That sounds like a pretty sloppy way of doing statistics.

      • quaslacrimas June 1, 2017 at 18:44

        Wilkommen in dem Geisteswissenshaften

        • spandrell June 1, 2017 at 18:45

          The age effect should apply to Turks too, shouldn’t it? And yet it’s vanishingly small. And it’s not like Germans are the kind of people who fail to recognize their children.

          • quaslacrimas June 1, 2017 at 19:05

            The Turks have a smaller gap in age at first child, and have a correspondingly smaller male/female fertility gap; they also have lower age at first child over all, and in particular are most likely to have their first child immediately after emigrating. (I also suspect Turkettes have lower rates of illegitimacy/divorce, so whichever method of calculating TFR was used would find fewer unwed Turkish mothers, but this isn’t actually reported in the study itself; I assume you agree with my hunch, whether or not you think it helps to explain the variance.)

    • akarlin June 1, 2017 at 21:02

      It’s also possible that some of the fathers were *East* rather than West German, due to internal mobility, but I suspect the age effects explain most of the effect.

      Unlikely since f. East Germany has a gender disbalance in favor of males (more women have migrated west than men).

      Other points are very good and more plausible than Heartistean explanations lulzy though they are.

      • quaslacrimas June 1, 2017 at 22:50

        I stand corrected. If f. E. Germany has too many males, I assume f. W. Germany has too many females; that sort of gender imbalance in postwar France, Germany, and Russia led to normalization of mistresses and illegitimate children, has the same thing happened in f. W. Germany?

        I’m a fan of your work, btw. “Apollo’s Ascent” in particular is quite clever.

        • akarlin June 2, 2017 at 00:52

          Thanks!

          I don’t think it should be noticeable. While f.East Germany clearly suffers from a deficit of women, the effect on f.West German demographics is greatly attenuated because of its much larger population.

          E.g., see this map: http://www.espon.eu/export/sites/default/Images/Publications/MapsOfTheMonth/MoM_February2013/SEMIGRA_High-Quality.png

          • spandrell June 2, 2017 at 01:45

            Wow. What a map. What’s the deal with France?

          • quaslacrimas June 2, 2017 at 02:03

            Wow, that is an odd map.

            However idk whether the map bears out your claim; you need to weight the map-area by population density which is impossible to do in one’s head. In the relevant age cohort (I checked the German census, but unfortunately it shows a surplus of females in every state; this is because when 65+ population is included the sex ratio is 0,95 overall, even though it is 1,04-1,05 in the adult population.)

            Consider otoh: from 1990 to 2010, illegitimate births rose from 16% to 33% (https://www.handelsblatt.com/lifestyle/gesellschaft/uneheliche-babys-im-vormarsch/4493378.html) So a rise in illegitimacy seems to be part of the story, whether or not it has anything to do with the sex ratio.

            (Tangential: the groundwork for this was laid by the GDR, which normalized the idea that 52% of Studentinnen would be mothers or pregnant by the time they graduated university.)

            • j June 3, 2017 at 09:35

              I do not know how true is this for Germany 2017, but in most countries fathers are forced by the State to pay much of their income to maintain their children till age 18 (here till 23). It is slavery, the police will locate and jail you if you try to escape. This may explain part of the self-reported fertility of the table. On the other hand, it is well known that in every generation, much fewer males reproduce than females, in peace and even more in war time.

              • spandrell June 3, 2017 at 19:47

                That is indeed the case across Europe; but I still have trouble thinking on orderly Germans abandoning their children in this numbers.

                • j June 4, 2017 at 18:52

                  Yes, it is not in the German character to abandon their children. So they must be … non-Germans. I have trouble thinking that German males would accept this theoretical situation. Germans are inscrutable.

          • Howard J. Harrison June 3, 2017 at 20:23

            Is there any reason to suspect that the map’s methodology is good? Or, contrarily, to suspect that it is bad?

            You probably wouldn’t know, but I just wanted to ask. I’ve never seen a map like this.

  4. Pingback: Gender inequality in fertility | Reaction Times

  5. chris June 1, 2017 at 20:22

    The difference could be partly made up by Russian​ or Polish males. Lots of muh based Slavs in Germany. Poles are the second largest foreign group, and other than Turkey and Syria, the top 15 countries of origin for foreign nationals are Eastern and Southern European countries. Check the “foreign Nationals” section here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

    Turks and Syrians are off-white. Hybrid offspring between them and German women will be Bosnian-tier. Could be a lot worse

  6. Alfred Woenselaer June 1, 2017 at 20:47

    On the topic of Germans; I’ve always wondered why there seem to be so very little Germans in NRx/DE circles. Max levels of cuck?

  7. Sir Charles Pipkins June 2, 2017 at 05:35

    It’s all about relative SMV. I’ve long thought that if Russians or Japanese lived in Mexico The Wall would have been built by now thanks to female scheming and capacity for collective action.

    • iSchemes June 7, 2017 at 10:26

      Yes. There’s no stopping female schemes. They have ruled everything all the time, at least in the last 250.000 years.

      • iHi June 7, 2017 at 10:29

        (Do I remember wrong, or someone does sometimes say that female collectives are torn apart by within-gender jealousy, and they can do some co-operation only with males?)

        Females never really co-operate with one another.
        Lesbians, maybe a bit more.

  8. RL June 8, 2017 at 16:06

    Don’t like to agree here but the ONS seems to back this up with the Pakistan-born men fathering a statistically significant 2,000 more children than the women. OTOH, Poland’s loss appears to be our gain!

  9. lalit June 9, 2017 at 05:55

    Excuse me, But being Indian and rabidly Anti-Muslim, I can’t resist doing some mathematics here. I want to know what is the fertility rate of German women married to Muslim men. So let’s get started.

    1. Let’s assume that German men marry only German women. This I believe is a reasonable assumption since it is all but impossible to marry a muslim woman without converting to Islam. I believe this number is too small to be counted

    2. Let’s further assume that all German women eventually get married. If a woman has kids, I will assume she is married. If anything this assumption will only low ball the German female fertility rate in marriage to Muslim men

    3. Let’s apply the Pareto principle (80-20 Rule) and assume that 80% of German women marry German men and that 20% marry Muslim men

    4. German Female fertility with German men = 1.27
    5. German Female fertility with Muslim men = y (the unknown variable)
    6. Total German Female fertility rate = 1.67

    7. Lo, Presto, the linear equation is now
    1.67 = 0.8 * 1.27 + y * 0.2 = 1.016 + y * 0.2

    Solving For y, we get the the fertility rate of German women in marriage with Muslim men coming to
    y = (1.67 – 1.016)/0.2 = 3.27

    Holy Moley! German Women fertility with Muslim men is the same as the Fertility rate in Pakistan!

    No wonder, those German women are lining up with “Refugees Welcome” Signs. Spandrell, you magnificent Bastard!

    • spandrell June 9, 2017 at 13:24

      20% of German women having 3.27 kids with Muslims sounds like a lot of kids.
      But you can’t argue with math. Less even against Indian math. Good stuff.

      • Lalit June 9, 2017 at 15:53

        If anything 3.27 is a low ball number. Suppose you assume only 10% of German women are marrying Muslim men, the fertility rises to 5.27.

        In fact here is the table
        1. If 50% German women marrying Muslim men, fertility = 2.07

        2. If 40% German women marrying Muslim men, fertility = 2.27

        3. If 30%, fertility = 2.6

        Basically the 1.67 average fertility of German women is much more massive than the 1.27 of German men than it looks.

        • Candide III June 9, 2017 at 16:31

          That’s completely preposterous. I’ll have to see if I can’t get at the data, rather than manipulate those TFR numbers.

          • Lalit June 10, 2017 at 16:20

            What exactly is it you find preposterous? The math? The assumptions behind the math? Or so you agree with both the assumptions and the math but just disagree with the conclusions?

    • Conrad June 13, 2017 at 18:39

      There are two problems with your equation:
      – It misses those who don’t breed at all (far more men than women, which leads to your underestimation of TFR of German women breeding with German men) and the German men who breed with foreign women (mostly Slavs).
      – The data we are using is just wrong. The same research institute has released a more profound analysis instead of relying on this sample of this study. The result: TFR of German men: 1,35. TFR of German women: 1,42. See https://www.mpg.de/10863448/geburtenrate-vaeter. Take into account that there are 1.05 men on 1 women at fertile age because of gender inequality at birth, meaning some men will lose out.

  10. Pingback: On demographic doom | AlfaNL

  11. Pingback: This Week In Reaction (2017/06/04) - Social Matter

Please comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s