Bloody shovel

Don't call it a spade

The Future

Let us talk demographics. Because life doesn’t suck enough as it does. Yes, had a bad day.

A while ago I proposed the concept of “projected population”. You get the total live births in a country, then you multiply it by 80, an approximation of life expectancy. So, assuming the level of births remains constant (which it won’t), in 80 years a country would have that amount of people.

So to put an example. Japan today has a population of 127 million. Live births in 2016 were 981k, so if the birth rate remained constant, in 80 years, roughly 2100, Japan would have a population of 78 million. Now of course the birth rate will not remain constant, given the fertility rate, 1.4, the population will shrink way beyond that. But there’s always a chance the birth rate comes up again. Some miracle. So projected population is only a way to understand how things stand right now. I’m not predicting anything. To the extent the projected population predicts anything it’s a best scenario. A miracle scenario.

So right here we got stats on birth rates across Europe. As of now, the 28 countries of the EU (including Britain), had a total of 5,103,165 births in 2015. Of course the EU isn’t the whole of Europe. But it’s close enough, and Serbia, Ukraine or Norway aren’t having that many babies anyway. So get this number as a good proxy. In Europe right now 5.1 million babies are being born per year.

Multiply per 80 and you get 408 million total population. The population as of 2015 was 510 million, so that’s a whopping 20% decrease. 100 million less Europeans at this rate. But wait. If you clicked the link you’d see there are stats on births “per country of birth of the mother”. That’s the total, this includes mothers born outside the EU. How many babies did foreign mothers have in 2015? 1,015,926 million. 20% of the total births. And this has been increasing at 25k per year. Babies from mothers born in the EU were just 4 million.

Interestingly enough the stats have data from Turkey. Over there in 2015 they had 1.3 million babies, of which only 22k were born to foreign mothers.

So anyway, at this rate, the population of the EU in 2100 would be 408 total, of which 80 million would be foreign or half-foreign babies, 328 million native. But wait. There’s plenty of ethnically foreign women in the EU having babies who weren’t themselves born abroad. Second and third generation immigrants. These count inside the 4 million EU births. How many of them are there? The EU wouldn’t say. If anybody has good data by all means put it in the comments.

I guess it’s fair to assume they’re somewhat above 10%. Perhaps not 25% yet, not EU wide. But again this is about mothers. Conveniently. Foreign fathers with native mothers are a pretty big part of the birth rate these days. So to say that 25% of kids born to “native mothers” aren’t 100% native kids sounds reasonable. That would mean that of the 4 million total births to European born mothers, 1 million kids are either foreign or half-foreign. So that leaves 3 million white kids born in 2015. And 2 million foreign or kinda foreign kids. 40% of the total. As of now. And it’s getting worse pretty fast.

So again, get that number into your head. As of 2015:
3 million White babies per year in Europe.
2 million White babies in the USA.
1.3 million Turkish babies.
17 million Chinese babies.
27 million Indian babies.
7 million Nigerian babies (!)

In 20 years, there will be just as many 20 year-olds.

This is the future we will live in.

 

 

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27 responses to “The Future

  1. Alfred Woenselaer May 26, 2017 at 23:58

    Very interesting stuff.

    I imagined the EU would not want to post statistics like this, exactly because of the observations you make using them. But hey, what can we do with them except get depressed. Or get excited about the prospect of whites being as special and rare as elves in Lord of the Rings.

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  4. Imperial Energy May 27, 2017 at 04:31

    Never fear.

    In the future, a single person in front of a terminal will be able to command an entire robot army of drones capable of dispensing Vx, Sarin and all other kinds of goodness.

    Drone tanks and bio-metrics. Reservations and Re-locations.

    The left hand of the Minotaur prods the right and the right hand strikes. The left hand, meanwhile, wrings its hand in consternation.

    Think of it this way, injecting a little bit of Muslim into the blood stream acts as a immunity shot. If you had of just kept them all out from the start, then they would all want to get in. A little sick is better than being dead.

    Eventually, USG will rev up the engines of war and the House of Islam will collapse into the sand. When the oil is no longer needed, Islam is no longer needed. Remember, USG moves by stealth and cunning, it pretends to weak and stupid, but it is always plotting, always scheming, always scoping out its next target.

    • bomag May 27, 2017 at 16:19

      In the future, a single person in front of a terminal will be able to command an entire robot army of drones capable of dispensing Vx, Sarin and all other kinds of goodness

      The logistics tail for this is long and fragile; it is going to require a whole lot more than one guy. In the West, groups large enough to keep the wheels on such a thing are all progs; not very encouraging.

      Reservations and Re-locations

      Such groups have higher fertility than otherwise.

      Remember, USG moves by stealth and cunning, it pretends to weak and stupid, but it is always plotting, always scheming, always scoping out its next target

      From my experience, the thing moves by crass stupidity.

      • Imperial Energy May 28, 2017 at 02:57

        Your experience is limited. Leftists have won the last four major wars.
        But their success has come only from overthrowing enemies and when they have no one else to overthrow, then they will be overthrown.
        Remember, democracy is a fiction, the power of the masses is a sham. One robot with a rifle can beat back a thousand of the masses.

        In due course, the entire Muslim world – what’s left of it, will be toppled. The Sunni and the Shia will be set upon each other like dogs and then the real killing will be begin.

        The task for reactionaries is to seize the means of power: Guns, Gold and Genes.

        • bomag May 28, 2017 at 12:40

          Leftists have won the last four major wars

          ??? I’m seeing Korea; Vietnam; the Cold War; and the Gulf War. I am unable to consume enough pharmacological substances to convince myself we came out of those with more than what we went in with.

          One robot with a rifle can beat back a thousand of the masses.

          The F-35 costs $42,000 an hour to fly. Good luck keeping that up and running in any kind of protracted war, let alone something with more complication on the scale of a warbot.

          Biology works because it has a constant repair mechanism that uses energy and basic, available elements. Mechanical bots are always going to be tied to a rather fragile smelting and fabrication regime.

          “Amateurs think tactics; professionals think logistics.”

          • Imperial Energy May 28, 2017 at 17:23

            Cold War, WW2, WW1 and The American Civil war. You could also say that the American rebellion was a leftist victory.

            “Amateurs think tactics; professionals think logistics.”

            And genius thinks in terms of Grand Strategy.
            America has a huge landmass, access to two Oceans a friendly north and a weak south.
            It has many allies and vassals, it has the world’s best human capital (and some of the worst), it is rich, it is strong and it can innovate.

            The Ruling Elite and the Modern Structure absorbs the talented and ambitious members of other nations and societies. But before absorbing, it screens via Harvard etc.

            It keeps the Red State Americans down via a number of ways – one of which is importing fiends. However, it also has an industrial prison system for the hardcore fiends.
            If the fiends get too tough or out of line, then other fiends can be imported.
            The American Ruling Elite, like the English before them, have a long history of this (think Northern Ireland.)
            So, for example, let’s suppose the finds get out of hand in America? Hmmm. Well, let’s look at France. If France collapses where will all that human capital run to?
            Why America of course.
            So, America skims of the best “cognitive elite” and it takes in some hardcore “red-pilled” reactionary French proles as sop for the Republicans or whatever “conservative” party there is, but also to drive out the fiends via “gentrification”.

            Add in a “total surveillance ” technology, meat police, and bots and, if needed, tolerate some para-military terrorism against the fiend community and hey presto! Pacification.

            • bomag May 28, 2017 at 18:36

              Cold War, WW2, WW1 and The American Civil war. You could also say that the American rebellion was a leftist victory

              Any martial success in those endeavors was from the traditionalists with their patriarchal authority and industry.

              The Civil war crippled the country in a multitude of ways; we were a weak partner in WW1; WW2 had its successes, but it gave us a divided Europe and a patchwork of colonial sores; the Cold war had us absorbing enough Communism to propel Obama and those minions into office.

              The Ruling Elite and the Modern Structure imports talent… keeps the fiends down…

              You are believing propaganda. Imported talent is vastly overrated; “fiends” grow in numbers and power and the elites have no answer, just policies that make things worse; our elite colleges grant power to so many who shouldn’t have it that the institutions are a net detriment by a large amount.

              • Imperial Energy May 28, 2017 at 19:02

                Any martial success in those endeavors was from the traditionalists with their patriarchal authority and industry.”

                But it was still the left that one.

                “You are believing propaganda. Imported talent is vastly overrated; “fiends” grow in numbers and power and the elites have no answer, just policies that make things worse; ”

                Exactly. The worse things get the better they will be – for the ruling elite. You need to begin to reason from their point of view an your own, or the state’s point of view.

                Ask yourself this question: what system, and what formula, is the most anti-progressive, and can defeat the progressives?

                The STEEL-cam is the following:

                Guns (Support from the Armed Forces, the Police and the NRA and all other gun owners.)

                Gold ( Return to the Gold standard, and practice a neo-mercantist economic strategy. Economics cannot be separated from politics hence “geo-economics”. So, some protectionism, some de-regulation, massive boost to industrial production, build new cities, new roads, etc etc.

                3: Genes ( HBD destroys their formula. Corner the market in genetic engineering and medical science more generally.

                4: Glory (Military victory, American nationalism, Triumphs.)

                5: God (Which means, in American speak, LIBERTY.)

            • King George III June 5, 2017 at 07:02

              “The American Ruling Elite, like the English before them, have a long history of this (think Northern Ireland.)”

              The Irish Plantations are the historical analogy par excellence.

  5. PoL May 27, 2017 at 04:40

    Sorry to nitpick, but “1.3 million Turkish babies” is misleading. Turkey’s fertility rate is near replacement level, but that comprises ethnic Turks who are below replacement and ethnic Kurds (15% of the population) who have ~4 children per woman. The higher-income Turkish provinces (Istanbul, etc.) have ~1.5 children per woman, comparable to Europe.

  6. akarlin June 1, 2017 at 17:37

    “Interestingly enough the stats have data from Turkey. Over there in 2015 they had 1.3 million babies, of which only 22k were born to foreign mothers.”

    To be fair I have a hard time believing that, there are 2.7 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey. Even disregarding other immigrants, that would be a crude birth rate of 8/1,000 – a figure only seen in the most demographically depressed European regions.

    Eurostat also gives a figure of 44,000 foreign births in Russia in 2013. I do not consider that plausible given the amount of Gastarbeiters here (even adjusting for perhaps 2/3 of them being males).

  7. akarlin June 1, 2017 at 17:40

    But on the whole this is correct of course, without some combination of White fertility reversal/hardcore immigration restriction/radical life extension Europe looks like it will become Greater Lebanon by the end of the century, and Eurabia another century after that.

    • King George III June 5, 2017 at 06:56

      “Europe looks like it will become Greater Lebanon by the end of the century, and Eurabia another century after that”

      If Power decides that the Mohammedans must come, they will come, and if Power decides that the Mohammedans must go, they will go, and if Power decides that the Mohammedans must die, they will die — every one everywhere.

  8. j June 2, 2017 at 09:31

    Independently from Spandrel I made similar projections, but I used 1:100 instead of 1:80, which yielded less dramatic figures. When the Roman countryside depopulated, the leaders opened the limes (frontiers) and welcome anyone asking to settle and willing to pay taxes and serve in the legions. Merkel inviting one million Syrians to settle in Germany is just the very beginning. In the bourse we have a saying: Don’t try to catch a falling knife. Let’s embrace change, which is unavoidable anyway. This is my opinion this morning, tomorrow may be different.

    • spandrell June 2, 2017 at 10:46

      You guys didn’t embrace change, did you.

      • j June 3, 2017 at 09:22

        You seem to suggest that we Jews did not embrace change. Are you talking about some mythical people or us? Look at the last hundred years: The Jewish people evacuated Europe (and the Muslim world) and concentrated in Israel. Half of the Jews in Israel are non-European from Iran, Morocco, India, 200 thousand Black Ethiopians alone, and accelerated mixing is going on. The second half of my people lives in the USA, where some 70% of the young are marrying whatever the Americans are. In one generation, we Ashkenazim will become even more scarce than are now. Change is unavoidable, whatever I or you would like or desire. Everything is temporary in this universe, resistance is futile.

        • Candide III June 3, 2017 at 10:19

          Change is unavoidable, whatever I or you would like or desire. Everything is temporary in this universe, resistance is futile.

          Death is also unavoidable and our life is temporary in this universe. Should we therefore be supine and not fight for life?

        • spandrell June 3, 2017 at 13:18

          I mean Israelis today. The black Ethiopians got their Depo-provera shots, and Jews are outbreeding Arabs. The Ashkenazis will do ok. Certainly better than most Europeans.

          • j June 4, 2017 at 19:05

            Thanks for your good wishes. I am an optimist too.

          • King George III June 5, 2017 at 06:55

            “certainly better than most Europeans”

            No way. Despite everyone’s pious bleatery to the contrary, Arabs are separate and distinct and anygene who “boils off” into that gene cesspool isn’t coming back. Contrast that to Israel, in which, thanks to the free mixing of races, a continuous gradient is rapidly forming, a continuous gradient in which genes flow freely both up and down, but as the browner is more propagative than the whiter, the brown penetrates up more than the white pushes down, the net effect being a breeding pool browning at all levels evermore. In short, nationalism of the Jewish variety has produced a terminal case of muddification, and it is the very strength of this nationalism that is causing the inevitable conclusion.

            • j June 8, 2017 at 18:03

              Not necessary so, Majesty. In the last ten thousand years or so, the European branch of humanity steadily out-reproduced the competition. True, the last hundred years were, comparatively, a disaster for Europeans, but the race is far from over.

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