Don't call it a spade
Let us talk demographics. Because life doesn’t suck enough as it does. Yes, had a bad day.
A while ago I proposed the concept of “projected population”. You get the total live births in a country, then you multiply it by 80, an approximation of life expectancy. So, assuming the level of births remains constant (which it won’t), in 80 years a country would have that amount of people.
So to put an example. Japan today has a population of 127 million. Live births in 2016 were 981k, so if the birth rate remained constant, in 80 years, roughly 2100, Japan would have a population of 78 million. Now of course the birth rate will not remain constant, given the fertility rate, 1.4, the population will shrink way beyond that. But there’s always a chance the birth rate comes up again. Some miracle. So projected population is only a way to understand how things stand right now. I’m not predicting anything. To the extent the projected population predicts anything it’s a best scenario. A miracle scenario.
So right here we got stats on birth rates across Europe. As of now, the 28 countries of the EU (including Britain), had a total of 5,103,165 births in 2015. Of course the EU isn’t the whole of Europe. But it’s close enough, and Serbia, Ukraine or Norway aren’t having that many babies anyway. So get this number as a good proxy. In Europe right now 5.1 million babies are being born per year.
Multiply per 80 and you get 408 million total population. The population as of 2015 was 510 million, so that’s a whopping 20% decrease. 100 million less Europeans at this rate. But wait. If you clicked the link you’d see there are stats on births “per country of birth of the mother”. That’s the total, this includes mothers born outside the EU. How many babies did foreign mothers have in 2015? 1,015,926 million. 20% of the total births. And this has been increasing at 25k per year. Babies from mothers born in the EU were just 4 million.
Interestingly enough the stats have data from Turkey. Over there in 2015 they had 1.3 million babies, of which only 22k were born to foreign mothers.
So anyway, at this rate, the population of the EU in 2100 would be 408 total, of which 80 million would be foreign or half-foreign babies, 328 million native. But wait. There’s plenty of ethnically foreign women in the EU having babies who weren’t themselves born abroad. Second and third generation immigrants. These count inside the 4 million EU births. How many of them are there? The EU wouldn’t say. If anybody has good data by all means put it in the comments.
I guess it’s fair to assume they’re somewhat above 10%. Perhaps not 25% yet, not EU wide. But again this is about mothers. Conveniently. Foreign fathers with native mothers are a pretty big part of the birth rate these days. So to say that 25% of kids born to “native mothers” aren’t 100% native kids sounds reasonable. That would mean that of the 4 million total births to European born mothers, 1 million kids are either foreign or half-foreign. So that leaves 3 million white kids born in 2015. And 2 million foreign or kinda foreign kids. 40% of the total. As of now. And it’s getting worse pretty fast.
So again, get that number into your head. As of 2015:
3 million White babies per year in Europe.
2 million White babies in the USA.
1.3 million Turkish babies.
17 million Chinese babies.
27 million Indian babies.
7 million Nigerian babies (!)
In 20 years, there will be just as many 20 year-olds.
This is the future we will live in.