Bloody shovel

Don't call it a spade

Monthly Archives: May 2017

The Future

Let us talk demographics. Because life doesn’t suck enough as it does. Yes, had a bad day.

A while ago I proposed the concept of “projected population”. You get the total live births in a country, then you multiply it by 80, an approximation of life expectancy. So, assuming the level of births remains constant (which it won’t), in 80 years a country would have that amount of people.

So to put an example. Japan today has a population of 127 million. Live births in 2016 were 981k, so if the birth rate remained constant, in 80 years, roughly 2100, Japan would have a population of 78 million. Now of course the birth rate will not remain constant, given the fertility rate, 1.4, the population will shrink way beyond that. But there’s always a chance the birth rate comes up again. Some miracle. So projected population is only a way to understand how things stand right now. I’m not predicting anything. To the extent the projected population predicts anything it’s a best scenario. A miracle scenario.

So right here we got stats on birth rates across Europe. As of now, the 28 countries of the EU (including Britain), had a total of 5,103,165 births in 2015. Of course the EU isn’t the whole of Europe. But it’s close enough, and Serbia, Ukraine or Norway aren’t having that many babies anyway. So get this number as a good proxy. In Europe right now 5.1 million babies are being born per year.

Multiply per 80 and you get 408 million total population. The population as of 2015 was 510 million, so that’s a whopping 20% decrease. 100 million less Europeans at this rate. But wait. If you clicked the link you’d see there are stats on births “per country of birth of the mother”. That’s the total, this includes mothers born outside the EU. How many babies did foreign mothers have in 2015? 1,015,926 million. 20% of the total births. And this has been increasing at 25k per year. Babies from mothers born in the EU were just 4 million.

Interestingly enough the stats have data from Turkey. Over there in 2015 they had 1.3 million babies, of which only 22k were born to foreign mothers.

So anyway, at this rate, the population of the EU in 2100 would be 408 total, of which 80 million would be foreign or half-foreign babies, 328 million native. But wait. There’s plenty of ethnically foreign women in the EU having babies who weren’t themselves born abroad. Second and third generation immigrants. These count inside the 4 million EU births. How many of them are there? The EU wouldn’t say. If anybody has good data by all means put it in the comments.

I guess it’s fair to assume they’re somewhat above 10%. Perhaps not 25% yet, not EU wide. But again this is about mothers. Conveniently. Foreign fathers with native mothers are a pretty big part of the birth rate these days. So to say that 25% of kids born to “native mothers” aren’t 100% native kids sounds reasonable. That would mean that of the 4 million total births to European born mothers, 1 million kids are either foreign or half-foreign. So that leaves 3 million white kids born in 2015. And 2 million foreign or kinda foreign kids. 40% of the total. As of now. And it’s getting worse pretty fast.

So again, get that number into your head. As of 2015:
3 million White babies per year in Europe.
2 million White babies in the USA.
1.3 million Turkish babies.
17 million Chinese babies.
27 million Indian babies.
7 million Nigerian babies (!)

In 20 years, there will be just as many 20 year-olds.

This is the future we will live in.

 

 

Flanking

That wasn’t my point, I recall Candide first saying it. But it’s a good point. Current government policy is to crack down on white men, converting to Islam wouldn’t necessarily change that. The government could use selective enforcement and crack down on White muslims making their women wear hijabs, say, while leaving Arabs completely unaffected, and suppressing press coverage of the whole thing.

Now that is funny to contemplate. America was lucky that Nation of Islam never caught up. Hispanics have things in common with Arabs. 5-10% African admixture, for example. Similar IQs. Who knows, maybe Arabs should try some intersectional outreach. Though I think Mexicans like their liquor a bit.

 

ETA:

Manchester

So, a 22 year old Arab dork,

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born and raised in England, who probably grew up obsessed by all those scantily-clad white girls all around him who wouldn’t give him the time of day. One day he suddenly “radicalized”, became a hard-core Salafist, made some Salafist buddies who took them to the Middle East to train as a ghazi. He found his call.

And what he do with his call? He bombed an Ariana Grande concert. Of all places.

Now why would that be? What is it he disliked or resented about hundreds upon hundreds of teenage girls in short skirts?

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These links may help.

https://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/divide-et-impera/

https://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2016/07/16/toxic-arab-masculinity/

 

First Lady

Incidentally, this is China’s First Lady, Peng Liyuan. I suggest you lower a bit the volume. The song is intense.

One Belt One Road

So the Chinese government just had a huge party in Beijing, attended by 100 or so heads of government, where they announced the launching of the One Belt One Road initiative. They even had cute videos in English like this.

But still, nobody has any idea what this is all about. And the reason is that Chinese public PR is utterly retarded. It just doesn’t work. China’s government has absolutely no way of reaching the hearts and minds of white people.

Part of it is racial hostility. Yellow men just aren’t cool. I hate saying this, I’ve lived half my life among them, and personally I like them very much. But I gotta say the truth. They just aren’t cool. Not even physically. They’re not small, the average Chinese is probably taller than the average Italian by now. But they’re skinny and awkward and just not very alpha. You just can’t fight average T levels. There’s plenty of cool guys in the right edge of the distribution, but alas. China will never be cool. Not even Japan is cool. Look at Cool Japan and other government initiatives. Only Anime and other stuff geared to 13 year olds is cool, because the Japanese never grow out of that age, as McArthur famously said. And the Koreans are basically prostituting their teenage girls all across the world for cheap (Korean dramas and K-pop shows are sold really cheap to get access) just in order to spite Japan getting more Western attention.

So now that I’ve established my impartiality by shitting on all of East Asia at the same time: what is the One Belt One Road thing? Well I don’t really know; but what I know is why it sounds so weird. You see, Chinese has this thing where ideally any word or language unit must be 4 syllables long, in order to sounds good and be memorable. As it happens Chinese characters are all 1 syllable long, so it’s also 4 characters, 4 words. It just has to. It just sounds good. It fits. It has been like that for 3,000 years. Even Confucius spoke in 4-word units. Mandarin today is about 30% 4-word idioms, some classical idioms going back thousands of years, some neologisms made by ad agencies, some political slogans made by the Communist Party Propaganda Department. That’s how Chinese works. And it’s beautiful once you get used to it.

So One Belt One Road is exactly 一带一路 yidai yilu, 4 words. Other famous slogans would be Mao Zedong’s 造反有理 zaofan youli, “rebellion is justified”, Deng Xiaoping’s 改革开放 gaige kaifang “reform and opening”, or Jiang Zemin’s 三个代表 sange daibiao “the three represents”, which incidentally means the Communist party represents the peasants, the workers and the capitalists whether they like it or not.

So anyway, everything has to fit in 4 words, so 一带一路 it was. They couldn’t just say “Land and Sea overseas infrastructure investment plan”. That would be more than 4 words. So you get this weird “belt” and “road” thing, where the belt stands for land route and road stands for sea route, for the only reason that it sounds right. Apparently the Koran doesn’t make any sense at all when read in translation but the Arabic just sounds so incredibly good, with rhyming and stuff that it became incredibly popular. Although it really doesn’t make any sense at all. Well, welcome to humanity.

So anyway, a friend of mine just told me he’d been to a conference on One Belt One Road and that it was the most boring official speech he’d ever listen in his damn life, and that’s saying something in China. Another friend though just sent me this chain-mail sort of stuff which kinda cheers on the whole thing. I assume it was made by the government, but I’ll translate it here so you can also have the Chinese side. Or better put, what China’s government says internally. Because remember, 90% of what the mainstream western press says is also, exactly, government made propaganda, we just don’t call it that.

A lot of people can’t quite get what One Belt One Road means. In fact it’s quite easy if you make a simple metaphor: say infrastructure to a country is like a person who goes buy a house. For the vast majority of people, they do need a house, but they don’t have the money on hand. Well, China here is like a developer, a construction company and a bank all put together. China has money it doesn’t know what to do with, it has empty houses, and the construction companies have no orders either. So we have both demand and supply sides here with nothing to do. What can we do?

Easy, we make a mortgage. China lends money to all these countries, and then these countries use this very money to ask Chinese companies to build them infrastructure, paying back the money to China in installments in the next decades.

By doing this China can use it’s foreign currency reserves in a smart way. We can avoid  buying US treasury bonds like we’re stupid; those give almost no yield. By lending out the money for interest, the yield is much higher. With this plan China can also put to use its industrial overcapacity, we get orders which reactivate our manufacturing base. And all these countries which would use China’s money and rely on China to build infrastructure; their economies will grow eventually, they’ll use money to pay us back, and they will also buy Chinese products.

So everybody wins, that’s what One Belt One Road is all about. [This sentences rhymes in the original]

Also through this infrastructure we can achieve two roads to Europe, one by land and one by sea. If there is any war with the US, the US won’t be able to encircle us. At the same time this would accelerate the speed of transport from China to Europe, lowering transport costs and increasing China’s competitiveness.

All these countries would use Chinese products as the standard of their infrastructure. This means that in the future they would need to use Chinese products to service the infrastructure. This would exclude other countries’ products, giving our manufacturers an advantage when competing with foreign manufacturers.

Of course inside all this there will be some loans which go bad. It’s like a bank, there’s always someone who can’t pay back their mortgage or their car loan. But banks don’t care about that, why? Because they make enough profit to compensate for it. And with China’s One Belt One Road, China would profit twice. One through the interest on the given loans, way higher than the yield of US debt. And then again when these countries buy Chinese products, giving money to Chinese private businesses. In business terms this is a very lucrative process, if we can manage well the level of bad debt, we are sure to make a net profit.

Also if China gets to develop these countries’ infrastructure, naturally these countries will become more friendly towards China. All these countries will be our friends. And as everybody knows, it is always good to have many friends. This applies to people and to states.

During this process, you may notice that China outright gives aid to some countries, without expecting payback. Some people don’t understand this, how can we give stuff away for free? It’s very easy. When you get some business from someone, you gotta give them some advantage. When shopping in a store, many shops give regular discounts, they’d give you coupons if you buy a lot, or even free products. Countries do the same. You’re making money out of someone, if you don’t give them something in exchange, well the business won’t go anywhere. All these aid packages are in fact discount coupons of a sort. Because besides us there’s also Japan or Germany giving loans, helping others build infrastructure. We have competition.

This kind of plan was in fact invented by the Americans. When the US wanted to open up foreign markets, they didn’t do like other countries and use military force to conquer colonies and their markets. What the US did was use what they called “open-door policy”, they used loans, the Marshall plan, etc. They gave loans to other countries, and these countries then used the money to buy American products. By doing so the US occupied these countries’ markets without shedding blood, which helped America become wealthy, and the US dollar become the world’s reserve currency. Thus the US became the world’s factory and ultimately the boss of the world. China is actually learning from America’s path to greatness, growing through peace, and not force.

So, you see, One Belt One Road is a very farseeing policy, it is precisely the path for China’s rising. If you have any friends who still don’t get it, send this piece their way. Let everyone get it. The Great Renewal of the Chinese Nation is just around the corner!

Original below
很多人搞不清楚一带一路到底是什么意思?其实打一个最简单的比方,基础建设对于一个国家来说,就像一个普通人去买房买车,对于绝大多数的国家来说,需要,但是拿不出这么多钱。而中国就好像是房地产商,建筑商和银行的组合体,有闲置资金,有空房,同时建筑公司也没活干,两边都有需求,怎么办?很简单,按揭了。中国借钱给这些国家,然后让这些国家,用这笔指定的钱找中国公司去修基础建设,然后分成几十年慢慢地还给中国。这样中国的外汇储备就有了灵活的运用,不用傻乎乎的只能去买美国的国债,收益几乎为零,借给别人收利息,收益高的多。中国过剩的产能,就有人出钱来买,盘活了中国的制造业。
而这些用中国钱的国家,靠中国帮助修好了基础建设,经济就会发展,就会有钱来还中国的钱,同时还会买更多的中国产品。这样各取所需,就是所谓的一带一路。
除了这些,一带一路的国家接受美元贷款,可以用人民币还款,这样,这些国家慢慢就开始接受了人民币作为储备货币,人民币,慢慢就获得了和美元同等的地位。同时通过这样的基础建设,形成了从海上和陆路两条直达欧洲的通路,一旦发生和美国的战争,美国无法对我们进行完全的封锁,同时,另一方面也加快了中国到欧洲的物流速度,降低了流通成本,进一步增强了中国的竞争力。由于这些国家使用中国产品作为基础建设的标准,后续的配套自然也要使用中国产品,这样就产生了排他效果,让中国在和其它的制造业国家竞争时,占据了优势地位。当然在这个过程中,肯定会有一些坏账,就像是银行一样,总会有些人还不起房贷车贷。可是银行依然乐此不疲,为什么?因为它赚的更多。而中国的一带一路,实际上赚两次钱,一是借钱出去的利息,比买美国公债赚得多的多,另一方面,这些国家必须使用中国的产品,让中国的民间企业能受惠,所以从商业的角度来说,几乎是一个暴利的过程,只要控制好坏账的比例,肯定是利大于弊。同时,由于中国为这些国家发展基础建设,会增大这些国家对中国的友好度,让这些国家成为中国的好朋友,谁都知道,朋友多了好办事。做人是如此,国家也是如此。在这个过程中,你会发现中国会对一些国家进行无偿援助,很多人想不通,为什么会这样呢?很简单,你做别人的生意,就得送给人家优惠。商场也要定期给你打折,买多了要给你送优惠卷,免费的产品。国家也是如此,光赚别人的钱,不给人家点好处,生意就做不走,这些无偿援助,实际上就是折扣卷。因为除了我们,日本德国也借钱给别人,帮别人搞基础建设,我们是有竞争的。这个方式实际上是美国人最先发明,美国为了获得市场,并没有采用其他国家的办法,通过武力征服,获取殖民地来获得市场。而是通过所谓的门户开放政策,租借法案,马歇尔计划等等,借钱给其他国家,让这些国家回过头来买美国的产品,这样兵不血刃地就占领了这些国家的市场,促进了美国的繁荣,让美元成为世界储备货币,使美国成为了世界工厂,最终成为世界老大。中国实际上在学美国崛起的方式,通过和平而不是武力,实现崛起。所以,一带一路是非常有远见的决策,是中国崛起的必由之路,如果你的朋友中还有人不知道到底是什么意思?把这个转出去,让大家都明白。中华民族的伟大复兴,已经指日可待了!

Islam or the Rule of the Ugly

You might remember this post; about how Islam is getting traction among middle-ages and unattractive women in general. We may call is aiskhrocracy, the rule of the ugly.

Well, don’t take my word for it. Take the Huffington Post’s.

Screenshot 2017-05-16 23.49.13.png

The argument? Quite simple:

Hip Feminist campaigns like Free the Nipple only encourage a gullible behavior of disrespect for our own bodies, leading to everyone else around us disrespecting our bodies as well. If we want to be respected as women and taken seriously in all our endeavors we should look to a new source; Muslim women. Muslim women, as well as Muslim men, see every body as a sacred temple, especially the female body. Opposed to exposing themselves, it is through modesty. When we think of modern feminists we should stray away from the new American trends and start looking to what we have always thought as a contradiction; Muslim feminists.

(…)

For me, this idea especially showcases feminism in America. With all of the pressures in our American society to have a certain physical allure; to have long, luscious hair, a skinny yet curvy body, flawless facial beauty, woman go through hell. With this, we succumb to the pressures that we generally think we are free of; we oppress our natural womanhood with constant worry about how we look to others around us. We do not have the courage to stand up to this societal critique and say ‘my body is not to be ogled at’.

Is that so, Gabby. Actually I’m very sympathetic. I do agree that Western women show too much skin. Way too much. And Femen-style feminists are plain insane.

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Well, you can’t eat the cake and have it too. Where’s your hijab Gabby? And, you know, maybe your brothers didn’t tell you, but as a man I can inform you that men don’t ogle only at the body. The face is quite important too. Yours doesn’t look too bad, and those two veil-clad girls on the picture in the article; they look pretty damn good. Very ogle-worthy. I’m not sure I could stop myself oggling them if I saw them.

So let us be coherent and faithful and follow the wisdom of this religion of yours, and go the extra mile. Put on your damn burka. And as far as possible, stay home. Then you can talk.

Occam’s Butterknife

https://www.1843magazine.com/culture/the-daily/the-small-world-of-modern-thrillers

THE SMALL WORLD OF MODERN THRILLERS

Plots used to be driven by real-world conflict, but now they revolve around domestic drama. It’s a trend that blights films and TV, from Sherlock to Bourne

I did like Steve Sailer and did a Control+F on “women” and “female”. There was nothing to be found.

The elephant in the room, that men are playing videogames and only women are watching TV so plots cater to female tastes, i.e. domestic drama, cannot be mentioned. It is crimethink. It really must be exhausting to be a writer these days.

The White Left

So this article is doing the rounds. Chinese netizens have synthetized a very powerful compound which has the Cathedral in complete terror. What is it? The word 白左, the White Left. This means that some people in China understand that progressivism is a foreign conspiracy against the Chinese nation. And they see this is in overt racial terms. It’s not “Western left”. It’s the “White left”.

Now, don’t get too excited. Nick Land is excited.  But he lives in Shanghai. And he just found out about this. Which means it’s not anything mainstream going on in China. I found the word in my Twitter feed about the time of Merkel’s boner, when she decided to bring 1 million hostile men into Europe.

The Chinese in Europe were livid. And for good reason. The Chinese went through a lot of hoops to get legal residence in Europe. The Muslims just got in for free. The Chinese are law-abiding and industrious. The Muslims are lazy and prone to crime. The Chinese live in low-rent areas where the Muslims flock to, and they assault the local Chinese all the time, while the police do nothing.

Now the Chinese have long had their problems with western style progressivism. There’s lots of Chinese living in the West, many go back taking their newly learned progressivism with them. And of course China is poor, the West is rich, so there’s plenty of people who consume Western media like crazy just because they think it smells of status. China even has SJWs; but they’re almost always women. They have a word for them: 聖母婊, “saint whore”, in that they claim to be as compassionate as a Catholic female saint, but are in fact mere attention-whores.

But it took the Muslim invasion of Europe for the Chinese to connect the dots. Feminist saint-whores are one thing: but ethnic pandering is a huge topic in China. China has plenty of Muslims and they hate them. Well, the people do, the Communist party is committed to diversity. The hates comes especially the college-grads who are likely to be into political discussion. Everybody has stories of Muslim minority kids getting affirmative action to get to college, making gangs inside school, picking up Han girls, getting privileges for Halal food and shit. Say you’re some Han college grad, who has been resenting this people for 4 years. You then get to go to America or England for grad school, and what do you find? Ethnic pandering squared. And Saint-whores cubed.

And then Trump happened. Trump started a big debate among the Chinese, both those abroad and those in China. Soon the consensus  was that anti-Trumpism was a conspiracy of the “white-left”, that coalition of feminists, pro-muslims and anti-chinese leftists that come from the West. China has a local left, the Maoists, which are called 毛左, the Mao-left, so this brand of very different leftism was called the 白左, the White-left.

But again, this is not something big in China. Your average Chinese citizen doesn’t talk politics, doesn’t read politics. If the alt-right is small, the Chinese alt-right is an order of magnitude smaller. This, if anything, is the ethnic-Chinese branch of the alt-right, here in the West, learning from the alt-right what is going on. These guys don’t want China to beat the West. They want the West to be the nice hedonistic place they always wanted to live in, or copy their institutions. Now they’re seeing that Eurabia and North Brazil are in progress, and they’re not happy about it. Who are they gonna sell their crap to? If the West falls to Islam, then China is the last fortress standing. They’re not happy about that prospect.

Evolution, 3

I guess I could make it a long series like at Outside in

The Role of Government, 2

A few centuries ago people in Europe discovered free trade. The market. They got the state to say: go make money, free of any guilds or regulations.  I won’t stop you. Go out there and make money. Compete freely. So people went to make money. Started businesses, factories, mines. In short order we got 2 industrial revolutions, the greatest technological advances in history, and vast, vast, amazing amounts of wealth. Pretty neat.

But. We also found the market isn’t perfect. Yeah it produces wealth. A damn lot of it. But leaving people alone to make money also resulted in other outcomes which weren’t so desirable. For some people, at least. You see, people compete to make money, and the competition can get ruthless, so people start doing bad stuff. These undesirable outcomes ended up being called “market failures”. There’s a whole literature about that. Externalities. Monopoly. Sweatshops. There’s lots of stuff, it isn’t quite clear what is and what isn’t a market failure; but the consensus out there is that there are quite a lot. And that the government should use its power to regulate the market in order to prevent and/or fix market failures. Again, it’s messy business, as tends to happen with government stuff, but that is how it works today. And it doesn’t work that badly. We got clean air and stuff. Which is nice.

So let me do this analogy:

A few centuries ago people in Europe discovered civil rights. Democracy. They got the state to say: go, be free of all legal restrictions in status. No more nobility or medieval ties. You are all citizens, get into politics. I won’t stop you. Go out there and say and read and assemble as you wish. Compete freely. So people went out there and started to do what they wished. Started newspapers, political parties, clubs. In short order we got a dozen liberal revolutions, the abolition of all hereditary privileges, universal suffrage, equality before the law. The first East Asian visitors to Europe in the late 1860s saw how cargo was transported by animal-drawn carts,  never by people, and wrote: pretty neat. This white guys treat men like men, not like animals. The shock killed Confucianism in a decade.

I digress. And there is no but. Only a small minority of reactionaries ever protested against this. Civil rights only got bigger, deeper. The free market produced much wealth. Free societies also produced much good stuff. But surely free societies have also resulted in undesirable outcomes. You see, people compete in society, competition can get ruthless, and people do bad stuff. We might call that social failures.

Surely low natality is a social failure? The education bubble? Youth unemployment? High criminality? Ugly art and architecture? You name it. All caused by the same thing that causes market failures. Competition run amok; too little oversight. Too much competition makes ruthless people take the upper hand, and the little people suffer.

Libertarians have this dream about the market which self-regulates. The market is just Human Action. Well, to a point. The market doesn’t care about what humans want long term. If it did there wouldn’t be Capitalist accelerationists who openly cheer for Skynet.  So it stands to reason that public force is to be used to correct some market outcomes produced by too much economic freedom.

Libertarians also have this dream about society itself, which self-regulates. Hayek pontificating against social engineering. Well, to a point. If society self-regulated perfectly no people ever would have gone extinct. And there’s a ton of social equilibriums, which we may or may not like. Not sure if I want lip plates as standard fashion. So, it stands to reason that public force is to be sued to correct some social outcomes produced by too much social freedom.