Bloody shovel

Don't call it a spade

Demographics

After establishing that facts are useless, I have a lot of facts to show you.

Let us check the demographic history of the recent world. It’s pretty interesting. I spent a while gathering up figures, mostly from Wikipedia, and some sporadic Googling. As far as I can tell the figures look pretty reliable.

I recently wrote about how 37% of births in France are Africans. How many people is that? Let’s take a look at the number of live births in France.

1900 917,075
1910  828,140
1920  838,137
1930  754,020
1940  561,281
1950  862,310
1960  819,819
1970  850,381
1980  800,377
1990  762,407
2000  774,782
2010  802,224
2014  783,000

783,000 in 2014, of which 37.2 are Africans. That makes 291,276 Africans born in France in 2014, for 491,724 mostly white French. What does that mean in the long run though? I found a way of comparing birth rates to present populations, to get an idea. The average life expectancy in most of the develop world is around 80 years old. So just multiply the number of births by 80 to get the “projected population”. Of course this assumes stable number of births over 80 years, which is a very stupid assumption. But it does serve our purposes to understand what 783,000 births in a year actually mean. What would it look like if France kept having 783,000 births every year? So let’s just multiply the above chart per 80 to see what happens.

Projected Population after 80 years
1900  73,366,000
1910  66,251,200
1920  67,050,960
1930  60,321,600
1940  44,902,480
1950  68,984,800
1960  65,585,520
1970  68,030,480
1980  64,030,160
1990  60,992,560
2000  61,982,560
2010  64,177,920
2014  62,640,000

So in an imaginary world, in which 1900 birth rates had remained constant forever, France would have had a population of 73 million French. With 1950 birth rates, you get 68 million French. If 2014 birth rates were constant, in 80 years we’d have a population of 62 million. The catch is of those 62 million, 39 million are french, and 23 million are African. And of course it will only get worse.

Let’s take a look at some other countries.

Germany Births Births x 80
1900  1,944,139  155,531,120
1910  1,876,778  150,142,240
1920  932,929  74,634,320
1930  1,144,000  91,520,000
1940  1,402,258  112,180,640
1950  1,116,835  89,346,800
1960  1,261,614  100,929,120
1970  1,047,737  83,818,960
1980  865,789  69,263,120
1990  905,675  72,454,000
2000  766,999  61,359,920
2010  677,947  54,235,760
2014  714,966  57,197,280

The figures for 1900 are 1910 are somewhat misleading, as they include Poles, but still, Germany in 1900 was on truck to having a population of 155 million. As of 2014, Germany will shrink to 57 million, of which a big proportion will be Africans and Arabs (I’ll call the Turks as Arabs for dramatic effect). The rising birth rate from 2010 hints that it’s not Germans doing the breeding. So see again: a rising empire of 155 million (!) declining into a sad nation of perhaps 40-something million.

Spain Births Births x 80
1900  627,848  50,227,840
1910  646,975  51,758,000
1920  623,339  49,867,120
1930  660,860  52,868,800
1940  631,285  50,502,800
1950  565,378  45,230,240
1960  663,375  53,070,000
1970  663,667  53,093,360
1980  571,018  45,681,440
1990  401,425  32,114,000
2000  397,632  31,810,560
2010  485,252  38,820,160
2014  426,303  34,104,240

Spain’s case isn’t as dramatic as Germany, but still pretty bleak. On track for 53 million s late as 1970, not they’ll be lucky to get to 30 million.

Netherlands Births Births x 80
1900  162,611  13,008,880
1910  170,766  13,661,280
1920  192,987  15,438,960
1930  182,310  14,584,800
1940  184,846  14,787,680
1950  229,718  18,377,440
1960  239,128  19,130,240
1970  238,912  19,112,960
1980  181,294  14,503,520
1990  197,965  15,837,200
2000  206,619  16,529,520
2010  184,397  14,751,760
2014  174,507  13,960,560

The Netherlands, on track for 19 million by 1970, now perhaps half that.

United Kingdom Births Births x 80
1900  1,091,000  87,280,000
1910  975,000  78,000,000
1920  824,000  65,920,000
1930  793,000  63,440,000
1940  793,000  63,440,000
1950  962,000  76,960,000
1960  918,286  73,462,880
1970  903,907  72,312,560
1980  753,708  60,296,640
1990  798,612  63,888,960
2000  679,029  54,322,320
2010  807,271  64,581,680
2014  776,400  62,112,000

Damn, the Brits were crazy back in 1900. 87 million! No wonder they left to Australia and beyond. However the English race won’t blight the Earth any longer, as it’s barely projected to number 40 million by 2094, while South Asians and Africans take their place. I do think the English could thrive under Islam though. The English have always been a religious people. And while alcohol might be tough to forsake, it’s probably for their own good. And they’d be free to bugger boys with abandon. That more than compensates for the prohibition of beer. So cheers for Londonistan.

Poland Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  890,400  71,232,000
1930  1,022,811  81,824,880
1940  849,873  67,989,840
1950  763,108  61,048,640
1960  669,485  53,558,800
1970  545,973  43,677,840
1980  692,798  55,423,840
1990  545,817  43,665,360
2000  378,348  30,267,840
2010  413,300  33,064,000
2014  375,160  30,012,800

No figures for Poland before WW1, but wow, 1930 Poles were breeding like rabbits. 81 million projected! Hitler and Stalin took care of that, and the Cathedral gave the final blow. Poles will be lucky to be 30 million people at this rate. But hey, at least they’re not invaded by foreigners. Yet.

Finland Births Births x 80
1900  86,339  6,907,120
1910  92,984  7,438,720
1920  84,714  6,777,120
1930  75,236  6,018,880
1940  65,849  5,267,920
1950  98,065  7,845,200
1960  82,129  6,570,320
1970  64,559  5,164,720
1980  63,064  5,045,120
1990  65,549  5,243,920
2000  56,742  4,539,360
2010  60,980  4,878,400
2014  57,232  4,578,560

Finland had its peak in 1910, with 7.4 million projected. Now it’s down to 4.5 million. But it’s all perhaps for the best. It’s a nasty piece of real estate they got up there. One wonders how the hell did they plan to feed 7 million Finns. Unfortunately Finland is now starting to bringing Muslims into the Arctic, so they’ll have to deal with that. The Arabs may not breed that much up there. It’s cold and dark, and they don’t drink. Finns should make a documentary about miserable Arabs in the Arctic Winter, just for fun.

Hungary Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  249,000  19,920,000
1930  220,000  17,600,000
1940  185,562  14,844,960
1950  195,567  15,645,360
1960  146,461  11,716,880
1970  151,819  12,145,520
1980  148,673  11,893,840
1990  125,679  10,054,320
2000  97,597  7,807,760
2010  90,335  7,226,800
2014  91,150  7,292,000

The same as Poland, Hungary went crazy after WW1. All the wars and craziness of independence must have made them very optimistic about the future. Or maybe it was an Afghan style “gotta breed some more to raise soldiers to kill our enemies”. Again Communism took care of that, and US overlordship gave the final blow. Hungary today has a projected population of almost 1/3 of its 1920 peak.

Croatia Births Births x 80
1900  97,000  7,760,000
1910  99,000  7,920,000
1920  –
1930  –
1940  –
1950  95,560  7,644,800
1960  76,156  6,092,480
1970  61,103  4,888,240
1980  68,220  5,457,600
1990  55,409  4,432,720
2000  43,746  3,499,680
2010  43,361  3,468,880
2014  39,566  3,165,280

Croatia follows the Eastern European pattern. It’s no wonder the Habsburg empire was having so much trouble. The minorities were breeding so much! They were fortunate to lose to the Communists so that they all lost interest in human existence. Croatians were busy fighting for independence from Serbians, but apparently haven’t realized that for Croatia to exist it needs some Croatians. Guess the saying it’s true, the only worse thing than not getting what you want, is getting what you want.

Let’s now venture outside Europe.

USA Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  2,377,000  190,160,000
1940  2,559,000  204,720,000
1950  3,632,000  290,560,000
1960  4,257,000  340,560,000
1970  3,731,386  298,510,880
1980  3,612,258  288,980,640
1990  4,158,212  332,656,960
2000  4,058,814  324,705,120
2010  3,999,386  319,950,880
2014  3,985,924  318,873,920

If I’m not mistaken the US didn’t get much immigration from 1925 to 1965, so the increase in births is staggering. By 1960 the projected population was 340 million. And that was 90% white. Alas by now white births are half the total, so about 2 million, which gives 160 million whites in 80 years.

Japan Births Births x 80
1900  1,470,000  117,600,000
1910  1,782,000  142,560,000
1920  2,105,000  168,400,000
1930  2,085,000  166,800,000
1940  2,100,164  168,013,120
1950  2,337,507  187,000,560
1960  1,627,939  130,235,120
1970  1,955,277  156,422,160
1980  1,576,889  126,151,120
1990  1,221,585  97,726,800
2000  1,194,000  95,520,000
2010  1,083,000  86,640,000
2014  1,001,000  80,080,000

Japan today is the oldest country on Earth, but the most important part is how fast the demographic transition was. In 1950 there were 2.3 million Japanese being born. That projects a population of 187 million! Well that didn’t happen. Japan is barely producing 1 million babies per year, which adds nicely to 80 million. Not bad, but of course it may get worse before it gets better. But as long as they keep the borders closed it’ll be a nice place.

Russia Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  4,412,000  352,960,000
1940  3,814,000  305,120,000
1950  2,859,000  228,720,000
1960  2,662,135  212,970,800
1970  1,903,713  152,297,040
1980  2,202,779  176,222,320
1990  1,988,858  159,108,640
2000  1,266,800  101,344,000
2010  1,788,948  143,115,840
2014  1,947,301  155,784,080

Say what you will about Stalin but his subjects in 1930 were breeding like champs. 4.4 million births! That would add up to 350 million Russians. Which is sorta inaccurate, as the Russian life expectancy doesn’t get to 80 years, not by a mile, but still. Note also the very impressive recovery since 2000. Russia seems to be doing well at continuing to be Russia. And no I won’t accept that it’s all the Caucasian and Turkic Muslims doing all the breeding unless you give me their birth data.

China Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  –
1940  –
1950  20,232,000  1,618,560,000
1960  13,915,000  1,113,200,000
1970  27,356,000  2,188,480,000
1980  17,868,000  1,429,440,000
1990  23,910,000  1,912,800,000
2000  17,710,000  1,416,800,000
2010  15,920,000  1,273,600,000
2014  16,870,000  1,349,600,000

Dumb people tend to ask why China did something so evil as the One Child Policy. Well by 1990 China was projected to have 1,9 billion people. And now it doesn’t. There’s still almost 17 million Chinese being born every year, so they’re doing ok. But good for Deng.

India Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  –
1940  –
1950  16,832,000  1,346,560,000
1960  19,086,000  1,526,880,000
1970  25,577,000  2,046,160,000
1980  27,566,000  2,205,280,000
1990  26,388,000  2,111,040,000
2000  27,191,000  2,175,280,000
2010  27,064,000  2,165,120,000
2014  27,379,500  2,190,360,000

While China dodged the bullet, India didn’t manage to. It took the bullet squarely into their heads. Look at those figures. 27 million Indians are being born every year. Let that sink into your head for a while. Twenty Seven Million. Every Year. Now almost half of India is malnourished as it is, imagine when this kids grow up. No way India is going to raise feed 2 billion people. The famines are going to be something to behold. I wonder what Raspail thinks of these figures.

Iraq Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  –
1940  –
1950  327,000  26,160,000
1960  343,000  27,440,000
1970  475,000  38,000,000
1980  571,000  45,680,000
1990  719,000  57,520,000
2000  960,000  76,800,000
2010  1,079,000  86,320,000
2014  –

While even India is keeping the births more or less stagnant, take a look at this. Iraq’s births have tripled in 60 years. Tripled. At this rate there’d be 86 million Iraqis on earth. The Tigris and Eufrates are nice but they can’t feed 86 million people. I doubt they carry enough water for 86 million Arabs to drink. Where will these people go?

Egypt Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  –
1940  697,700  55,816,000
1950  904,941  72,395,280
1960  1,113,888  89,111,040
1970  1,161,539  92,923,120
1980  1,569,247  125,539,760
1990  1,687,000  134,960,000
2000  1,751,854  140,148,320
2010  2,261,409  180,912,720
2014  2,720,495  217,639,600

Well the same place the Egyptians are going to go. Egypt is insane. 2.7 million births last year. At this rate there’ll be 217 million Egyptians. They’re going to eat the pyramids. If the Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t blow them up before they do.

Nigeria Births Births x 80
1900  –
1910  –
1920  –
1930  –
1940  –
1950  1,821,000  145,680,000
1960  2,202,000  176,160,000
1970  2,081,000  166,480,000
1980  3,642,000  291,360,000
1990  4,446,000  355,680,000
2000  5,606,000  448,480,000
2010  7,000,000  560,000,000
2014  –

I won’t comment on this one. 560 million Nigerians. Hahahaha. Haha. Ha…

What’s most funny is when you compare all these figures to the actual population figures, past and present.

  India Nigeria Iraq Egypt
Actual 1900  280,912,000  16,000,000  2,060,000  8,000,000
Actual 1950  357,561,000  29,790,000  5,158,000  21,834,000
Actual 2015  1,252,000,000  173,600,000  36,632,000  88,800,000
Projected 2094  2,190,360,000  560,000,000  86,320,000  217,639,600

India had 280 million people in 1900. At this rate it will have 2.2 billion.
Nigeria had 16 million people (by British count) in 1900. At this rate it will have 560 million.

Iraq had 2 million people in 1900. 2 million! At this rate it will have 43 times as much.

Egypt had 8 million. Damn 1900 Egypt must have been a beautiful place. Now it has 88 million, 10 times as more, and at this rate it will have 217 million.

None of this will happen, of course. Something has to give. There is not enough food to feed all those Arabs, Indians and Africans. And I’m not going to feed them. I’m also quite positive that the future brown majorities in France, Germany and England are not going to feed them either. Oh, it’s gonna be fun. Utterly miserable. But fun.

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13 responses to “Demographics

  1. Pingback: Demographics | Reaction Times

  2. Matthew December 21, 2015 at 00:14

    God, we are so fucked.

  3. NRx_N00B December 21, 2015 at 03:32

    “None of this will happen, of course. Something has to give. There is not enough food to feed all those Arabs, Indians and Africans. And I’m not going to feed them. I’m also quite positive that the future brown majorities in France, Germany and England are not going to feed them either. Oh, it’s gonna be fun. Utterly miserable. But fun.”

    Not to worry mang, the Cathedral’s got shit [i.e. ecological overshoot, see William R. Catton’s ‘Overshoot’ and ‘Bottleneck’] covered. You see, in the existing global hierarchy, “whitey” is still at the very pinnacle of the food-chain, hence there’s plenty of elbow room for “re-equilibration”. This is where Robin Hood’esque projects come into play to make things right in a world painfully scarred by memories of centuries-long alien colonial/imperial domination. Think of climate-change, multikulti/mass-immigration, affirmative action, the deconstruction of “whiteness” and a huuuuge array of other concessions, as forms of cryptoreparation—to satisfy the global surge in the quest for personal dignity, cultural respect and economic opportunity.

    The trick is to move somewhere very fucking cold and underpopulated, then befriend some Inuit…and live happily ever after.

    • NRx_N00B December 21, 2015 at 05:20

      Not to mention, universal access to the interwebz, radio and teevee, creates a shared envy of seeing “whitey” precariously perched atop of the food-chain—it is the youngin’s of the third world that are particularly resentful and restless.

      Longer term, it should make any thinking person wonder who the most probable target of soft followed by eventual hard-genocide will be?

  4. With the thoughts you'd be thinkin December 21, 2015 at 07:40

    Funnily enough I read this from the Guardian today:

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/18/why-south-african-students-have-turned-on-their-parents-generation

    Which illustrates your genocide point well and the economic crisis (probably requiring an IMF bailout) on the horizons illustrates your food point.

    • bomag December 22, 2015 at 03:38

      Interesting article, but with all the usual dreariness: twenty years after the end of apartheid, Blacks are pissed and YT must pay and be written out of history. Racial consciousness goes to the bone.

    • NRx_N00B December 22, 2015 at 05:46

      Yeah, just looking at the copycat protests at Mizzou, Yale and elsewhere, South Africa might provide a pretty good glimpse—a fasttracked proxy-microcosm of the West at large.

  5. George December 21, 2015 at 20:24

    It will be a great tragedy, or the largest quantity of human death and suffering. ever. It may be nearer to the “end times” from a religious standpoint.

    Do what the Mormons (historically) did, and keep a year or so supply of food for you and your loved ones. Also, don’t tell anyone.

  6. Hail December 21, 2015 at 20:49

    As angry as so many of us were at the so-called “Migrant Crisis” in 2015, these numbers show that “it *is* inevitable” — If not now, then later, maybe even much later, but in some scenario or other, it is inevitable. The leftwing drones are correct…Unless we seize control of our own destiny again. Revivalism is yet possible.

  7. Hail December 21, 2015 at 20:52

    On the small good news front, the USA has recovered to 54% of births being White, from reportedly perhaps being hitting 49.9% for the first time a few years back.

    See the graph at Total Fertility Rates by Race in the USA, 1980-2013. U.S. Whites are no longer being vastly outbred by Nonwhites in relative terms.

    The following were the actual number of births in 2013:

    2,130,000 babies born to White Non-Hispanic women (54.1%).
    580,000 babies born to Black Non-Hispanic women (14.8%).
    900,000 babies born to Hispanic women (22.9%).
    270,000 babies born to Asian women (6.8%).
    46,000 babies born to American-Indian women (1.2%).

  8. Pingback: This Week in Reaction (2015/12/20) | The Reactivity Place

  9. Jefferson December 29, 2015 at 21:58

    It’s all good, we’ll just use crispr to make new Super crops to feed all the people.

  10. Pingback: The Future | Bloody shovel

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